Gemini Argon released on...?

As of Tue, 13 Oct 2026 17:18:24 UTC, Polymarket traders price October 24 (0.1%), October 23 (0.1%), October 29 (0.1%). The market has $8K in volume and closes on Sun, 25 Oct 2026.

Updated:

Current odds

OutcomeChanceYes priceNo price
October 240.1%0.1¢100.0¢
October 230.1%0.1¢100.0¢
October 290.1%0.1¢100.0¢
October 200.1%0.1¢100.0¢
October 280.1%0.1¢100.0¢
October 310.1%0.1¢100.0¢
October 210.1%0.1¢100.0¢
October 190.1%0.1¢100.0¢
October 250.1%0.1¢100.0¢
October 220.1%0.1¢100.0¢
October 260.1%0.1¢100.0¢
October 270.1%0.1¢100.0¢
October 300.1%0.1¢100.0¢
No release by October 310.1%0.1¢100.0¢

Market details

Resolution rules

On September 30, 2026, Google announced Gemini 4 Argon, its next-generation frontier model (https://blog.google/innovation-and-ai/models-and-research/gemini-models/gemini-4-argon/), with initial availability limited to trusted partners through its Fairwind Program. This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's "Gemini Argon," or a model qualifying under the terms below, is made available to the general public. Any model whose official name includes "Argon," or that Google officially describes as an Argon model, an Argon-class model, or the public release or counterpart of the model referenced in the announcement, will qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Sources

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