Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026? — odds by venue
| Outcome | Polymarket | Kalshi | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|
| — | 4% | 4% on Kalshi |
Venues
- Polymarket: Volume $105 · Liquidity $72.5K
- Kalshi: Volume $3.1M · Liquidity $3.1M
Resolution rules
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor. In order to be considered released,…
Kalshi
If Apple Inc. releases iPhone 18 to the public before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.