Which party will win the U.S. House? — odds by venue
| Outcome | Kalshi | Opinion | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic Party | 90.2% | — | 90.2% on Kalshi |
| Republican Party | 10% | — | 10% on Kalshi |
Venues
- Kalshi: Volume $30.6M · Liquidity $44.4M · Price time —
- Opinion: Volume $14 · Liquidity $3M · Price time —
Resolution rules
Kalshi
If the Democratic Party has won control of the House in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. This market may be determined early based on a consensus of media calls projecting control of the U.S. House. See full rules for details. Otherwise, victory will be determined by the party identification of the Speaker of the House on February 1, 2027.
Opinion
This market will resolve according to the party that controls the House of Representatives following the 2026 U.S. House elections scheduled for November 3, 2026. House control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives. If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Spea…