What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026? — odds by venue

As of Oct 31, 2026, 20:56 UTC, ≥ 4.5% trades at 2.6% on Polymarket and 3% on Kalshi. Combined volume: $6.4M.

Outcome	Polymarket	Kalshi	Best price
≥ 4.5%	2.6%	3%	2.6% on Polymarket

Venues

Polymarket: Volume $5.8M · Liquidity $484.8K
Kalshi: Volume $664.4K · Liquidity $664.4K

Resolution rules

Polymarket

The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range…