Time's Person of the Year for 2026 — odds by venue
| Outcome | Kalshi | Opinion | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Zohran Mamdani | 31% | 32% | 31% on Kalshi |
| Donald Trump | 11% | 12% | 11% on Kalshi |
| James Talarico | 8% | — | 8% on Kalshi |
| Dario Amodei | 8% | — | 8% on Kalshi |
| Elon Musk | 7% | 10% | 7% on Kalshi |
| Marco Rubio | 6% | 10.7% | 6% on Kalshi |
| Victor Glover | 5% | — | 5% on Kalshi |
| Jeremy Hansen | 4% | — | 4% on Kalshi |
| Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf | 5% | — | 5% on Kalshi |
| Reid Wiseman | 4% | — | 4% on Kalshi |
Venues
- Kalshi: Volume $1.9M · Liquidity $1.9M
- Opinion: Volume $9.6K · Liquidity $128.8K
Resolution rules
Kalshi
If Dario Amodei is Time Person of the Year for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. This will count towards the payout criterion: If multiple persons win, all persons that are listed are encompassed within the Payout Criterion. If, for example, the Person of the Year is “Joe Biden and Kamala Harris”, both “Joe Biden” and “Kamala Harris” strikes are encompassed within the Payout Criterion. The person must be explicitly named as the Person of the Year or pictured on the/a relevant cover if they are associated with the group/concept winning (the picture is only relevant for a natural human…
Opinion
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed person, group, entity, or thing is TIME Person of the Year for 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A listed option will be considered TIME Person of the Year if they/it are explicitly named as Person of the Year. Additionally, the following rules apply: If multiple people are explicitly named person of the year, both people will be considered TIME Person of the Year. If the TIME Person of the Year is a concept, group or thing, a person may still be considered Person of the Year if they are also explicitly named person of the y…