Nitto ATP Finals: Player to Qualify — odds by venue
| Outcome | Polymarket | Kalshi | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Frances Tiafoe | 97% | 97% | 97% on Kalshi and Polymarket |
| Tommy Paul | 29.9% | 26% | 26% on Kalshi |
| Taylor Fritz | 11.9% | 17% | 11.9% on Polymarket |
| Andrey Rublev | 6.3% | 1% | 1% on Kalshi |
| Francisco Cerundolo | 2.8% | 2% | 2% on Kalshi |
| Novak Djokovic | 1.8% | 1% | 1% on Kalshi |
| Felix Auger-Aliassime | 1.9% | 1% | 1% on Kalshi |
| Alex de Minaur | 2% | 2% | 2% on Polymarket and Kalshi |
| Alexander Bublik | 2% | 1% | 1% on Kalshi |
| Jakub Mensik | 1.9% | 2% | 1.9% on Polymarket |
Venues
- Polymarket: Volume $28.8K · Liquidity $48.3K
- Kalshi: Volume $188.3K · Liquidity $188.3K
Resolution rules
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified player qualifies for the singles main draw of the 2026 Nitto ATP Finals, currently scheduled for November 15, 2026 to November 22, 2026, in Turin, Italy. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A player is considered to have "qualified" if they are named to one of the eight (8) singles main-draw spots according to the official ATP source. If a player qualifies but withdraws before competing, they will still be considered to have "qualified" and this market will resolve "Yes." If the tournament is postponed beyond December 6, 2026, 11:…
Kalshi
If Felix Auger-Aliassime qualifies for the 2026 Nitto ATP Singles Finals, then the market resolves to Yes. If player qualifies but does not compete, the market resolves to Yes. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.