Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? — odds by venue
| Outcome | Polymarket | Kalshi | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23% | 25% | 23% on Polymarket |
Venues
- Polymarket: Volume $4.3K · Liquidity $77.3K · Price time —
- Kalshi: Volume $1.7M · Liquidity $1.7M · Price time —
Resolution rules
Polymarket
A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election. You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/ This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no qualifying ba…
Kalshi
If a one-time tax on billionaires ballot initiative in California passes, then the market resolves to Yes. This market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media sources has declared a winner. See full rules for details.