WA-05 House Election Winner — odds by venue
| Outcome | Polymarket | Kalshi | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Baumgartner (R) | 84% | 83% | 83% on Kalshi |
| Carmela Conroy (D) | 18.6% | 18% | 18% on Kalshi |
Venues
- Polymarket: Volume $1.5K · Liquidity $131.2K
- Kalshi: Volume $166.1K · Liquidity $166.1K
Resolution rules
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these…
Kalshi
If the House member sworn in for WA-05 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes. This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.